Forex Patterns and Probabilities: Trading Strategies for Trending and Range-Bound Markets (Wiley Trading)

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Product Description

While most books on trading deal with general concepts and shy away from specifics, Forex Patterns and Probabilities provides you with real-world strategies and a rare sense of clarity about the specific mechanics of currency trading. Leading trading educator Ed Ponsi will explain the driving forces in the currency markets and will provide strategies to enter, exit, and manage successful trades. Dozens of chart examples and explanations will guide you each step of the way and allow the reader to "look over the shoulder" of a professional trader hard at work at his craft.

This book provides traders with step-by-step methodologies that are based on real market tendencies. The strategies in this book are presented clearly and in detail, so that anyone who wishes to can learn how to trade like a professional. It is written in a style that is easy to understand, so that the reader can quickly learn and use the techniques provided.

Forex Patterns and Probabilities: Trading Strategies for Trending and Range-Bound Markets (Wiley Trading) Review

This is mostly for beginners. There are only good advices, so it is a good choice for beginners or those who need to be put back on tracks.

The number of strategies is in fact quite limited and not really new. I was expecting much more from the description. Ed just uses levels for entry and stops that could be slightly different than in some other books.
2 strategies about trending markets (FX-Ed and classic 2 time frame system), 1 for pennant/flags, a volatility breakout strategy, which is in fact a triangle strategy (for the entry). playing the round numbers, a range trading in the low volume opening, and a word about the carry trade.

The so-called FX-Ed trending strategy is based on moving averages. I have backtested it (it is easy, no place for interpretation for the version without partial exits and reload)and of course it works on strongly trending markets such EURUSD recently, but wait, any trending strategy worked!! The same strategy with pairs such as USDJPY generates a loss or a small gain between 1997 and 2005 and it was in fact quite good at buying tops and shorting bottoms, resulting in huge volatility of the equity curve.

Update: Backtest of the "round trip" (playing the round numbers). Only difference with the text is that the second target is a multiple of the first one instead of based on a previous R/S level. From Sept 2003 to Sept 2006, it does not work and looses for most pairs (including those preferred by the author). Even if we take only the first bounce, it looses.

Update2: Backtest of the "Boomerang", a range trading in the low volume opening. EURUSD only as suggested by Ed. Tested from Sept 2001 to Nov 2006. There is a profit growing steadily (though there are drawdowns) from Sept 2001 to May 2004. After that, it is flat. There are still trades, but they do not produce any profit, just breakeven. Has it stopped working after too much advertisement for it?

Page 217 is quite interesting. The author explains why it is not recommended to systematically take small profits such as 10 pips. I am wondering if the "strategy 10" advertised by one of the praisers of this book is compatible with this view. Anyway, Ed also says that those who recommend such thing may just want to profit from people by the "introducing broker" system, and so we must be careful.

The book progresses slowly, explaining every single detail. There are a few repeats in the first half of the book. For most charts, the horizontal labels are not displayed.

The book is 245 pages but the content is quite small because there are so many charts! The number of useless charts is amazing. He uses charts to illustrate any single information in the book. For example, a pair trending up (a chart), a pair trending down (a chart), a congestion (a chart), breakout from congestion (a chart), a strong trend (a chart), a moving average (a chart), a second moving average (a chart), a RSI (a chart), a fib retracement level (a chart). For a "strategy", an entry point (a chart), placement of the stop to be put after the entry (a chart), placing first target (a chart), second target (a chart), third target (a chart), tweaking the exit levels (1 chart per exit level!), Entry triggered (a chart), first target reached (a chart), the pair continues (a chart), it pulls back (a chart), it reaches the second target (a chart), and the third (a chart), etc... Well, don't you think that a few charts with gathering a few things on each of them would have been enough? It looks as if the book was the written version of a seminar. In fact, it probably is!
Page 204: Two times the same chart! The first chart was supposed to show only the entry (as usual), and the second the exit later on, but the first one already shows the exit! Good Ed, you are improving by putting both entry and exit on the same chart (you could save some trees by concentrating more information!!), but only one chart is necessary in this case!

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